The last week of August is not likely to be overwhelmed by significant events, but the exchange and stock market are going to have enough issues to pay attention to. The world is turbulent, contemplating new stages in the trade war between the USA and China, which means we have no time for being bored.
The US GDP: waiting for evaluation decrease
This week, the USA is publishing the revised statistical data on the GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2019, which may be corrected and decreased in comparison with the initial evaluation. At the moment, it may not be a nice surprise for the US dollar, but the market knows that there will be a third evaluation, and it is almost never disappointing. EUR/USD may be trading around 1.1085-1.1175.
Europe: all attention to France and Italy
This week, the main currency pair may be reacting at the foreign-policy event as well: for example, at the annual speech of French President Emmanuel Macron, who should point out the situation with Iran and talk to the country’s representative on behalf of the G7. Europe is worried about the probability of conflict escalation in the region, and any chance to avoid it should be used.
Italy is discussing new elections after prime minister Giuseppe Conte resigned. The country’s economy and its relationship with the EU are in a complicated state, so any political change attracts lots of attention.
For the EUR/USD pair a hint on a failure of this or that government is always a risk of a decline.
Trade war increases demand for safe-haven assets
China announced an increase in the fees on the goods imported from the USA; Washington did not hesitate to imply much stronger mechanisms of influence. The US are also increasing the import fees, several times more than China is.
This means a new phase in the world trade wars, which will enhance the demand for safe-haven assets: bonds, the dollar, the Japanese yen, etc.
Yuan at its minimums
Mutual trade sanctions of the US and China led the quotations of the dollar/yuan pair to the 11-year minimum. The weaker the yuan, the more clear it is that the trade wars are just developing. This week the pair has all chances to reach 7.1550.
Iran asks for permission to export oil
This week the attention of the commodity market is attracted to Iran, apart from the data on the US reserves. On the platform, they are discussing the readiness of Iran to ask the West for permission to export oil. Tehran is counting on exporting no less than 1.5 million barrel oil a day. If the question does not freeze, we can expect a decline in oil prices around 2-4% at the moment.
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