Well, here we have yet another week and another top market news in April; this month has become a mock vacation for the majority of citizens, a disaster for a large number of businesses, a revelation of a row of economic problems. Not much has changed since last week. However, there is good news: outside is spring, and summer is coming. Judging by the Chinese experience, the quarantine will come to its end someday, and life will get back to normal.
USD: the statistics are scarce but important
This week, the attention of investors will be attracted to the releases on the real estate market in the USA. The first report will be on the secondary housing market - it is due on Tuesday; the next one to be released is the report on the sales and prices of newly built houses. Here, it is most likely that everything will drop at once: no buyers - no sales. The prices may have also decreased due to the decrease in demand. For now, these consequences of the economic stress are local; but the longer the quarantine lasts, the more will the real estate market be harmed. For the USD, the weak statistics will be no surprise, however, the rate may drop.
AUD: the protocols of the RBA session may be standard
The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing the protocol of the previous session for publication. Here, we are interested in the follow-up statement, though we are more or less acquainted with it: all the risks are outside the Australian economy. However, the regulator has all its monetary instruments well prepared to hold back the drop of its GDP. Normally, the AUD hardly react to the minutes of the Central bank.
GBP: the labor market may surprise unpleasantly
The new week of April will let in a flow of statistics on the British labor market. The unemployment rate may have remained as before, at 3.9%, but the average salary may have decreased, and the number of applications for unemployment benefit has probably increased. Apart from being in the process of painful Brexit, Britain is fighting the coronavirus and, hence, remains isolated. If the reports turn out worse than expected, the GBP may drop in pair with the USD.
What do economies do? Ministers of finance will decide
This week, the ministers of finance of the EU countries will meet online. The main issue of the agenda: what else can be done to support European economies in the coronavirus crisis? Earlier, the politicians agreed on the financial support of 500 billion EUR but this may not be enough.
The CBR is ready to decrease theater, the ruble has agreed
On Friday, April 24th, the Central bank of Russia will have another session. Now, the key rate is 6% per annum. Ideally, it should decline to 3-4% per annum, but a decrease of 50 basis points will be enough. The ruble will react by local growth in pairs with the USD and EUR - just because everything has long been decided at the prices. For the USD, the probable channel of the upcoming week is 73-75 RUB, for the EUR - 80-82 RUB.