By the end of June, the financial market has received almost all the information it expected. What is left are just statistics and the end of the quarantine — for the world to start functioning at a full scale. This week, there is the macroeconomic data planned for publication alongside general economic events — all in all, plenty of things to pay attention to.
NZD: interest to risk supports the currency
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will carry out a session and make a decision on the interest rate, thus topping off the cycle of Central bank sessions in June. The interest rate of the RBNZ is 0.25% per annum – it is low already, there is no room for a decline. Judging by the statistics, the economy of New Zealand is doing okay during the pandemics, requiring no additional stimulation. Things will get much better when the outer world will come back to more or less normal, and the world economies will get restarting, creating demand. Anyway, even in the current circumstances, there is no crisis in the New Zealand economy. For the NZD, a stronger support factor is the market interest to risk.
USD: focus on statistics
As for the US statistics, which will be abundant this week, pay attention to the final GDP values for the 1st quarter of 2020. The data will be published on Thursday. Some say that at the beginning of the year, the US economy may have fallen by 5-7%. This would be a serious slump, suggesting a two-times graver one in the second quarter. The weaker this report, the worse for the dollar. The US is also preparing a report on the order volume of durable goods. The report itself is extremely volatile; even in good times, the values vary a lot. Don’t be afraid of weak results: they will stabilize at once, as soon as the consumer returns to the economy.
EUR: the world is ready to risk
As for the Eurozone, it is issuing the business activity statistics this week in both the production and non-production sectors. This data is unable to influence seriously the major currency pair but is useful for understanding the economic situation in the region. The EUR needs positive market attitude to risk, and so it is.
Stress-tests: is everything that bad?
This week, the US will publish the result of the stress-tests of banks. Fresh tests are most likely to show some damage by the pandemics and mass quarantine restrictions because banks got in the center of general panic as well. Meanwhile, the Fed may still mark the results as expected and base its judgments on the presumption that the banks are mostly alive and healthy. What else could we expect from those whose duty is to be optimistic?
Cryptocurrencies: things are too quiet
The Bitcoin still fails to reach 10,000 USD due to the vague demand. The date of the Ethereum 2.0 test network launch remains unknown, however, investors are watching closely the tests of their stacking service. As the world of fiat money, the crypto market is lacking a key idea.