Another week of July is already here, and the expectations are neutral. It offers statistics – but not fatal, actions of Central banks – but predictable, and news – but pretty stable. It is high time to breathe out and relax a bit unless the news flow brings up something unexpected.
EUR: confident and strong
This week, the Eurozone will publish some curious reports. For example, the report on retail sales should be informative: the previous one demonstrated a drop by over 11%, while this time it might show a correction by roughly a half. Unfortunately, the Eurozone cannot boast active and carefree buyers: Europe is still worried about the pandemics and keeps following the recommendations on preventive social measures. Also, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index is worth paying attention to: in July, it may restore to -11-15 points. The indicator has been falling since March; it reflects the percentage of pessimists in the market; the values remain negative. For the rate of the euro, the stronger the index, the better.
USD: remains stable, regardless of politics
The USA is ready to share information on consumer lending. The news is most likely to remain in the minor key because the consumer has no room for action. The reports on the producer price index are also going to be informative: they will let us know what is going on with consumer prices as well.
The coronavirus setting leaves the election race in the USA hidden from us. Nonetheless, a couple of days ago, President Donald Trump reminded us of it. The king of Twitter and volatility lord announced that the third quarter will be amazing for the country and yield his victory. Normally, the USD reacts positively to such statements.
The Bank of England: no surprises
On Thursday, July 9th, the Bank of England is issuing its statement on the monetary policy and publishing the minutes of its session in June. Moreover, on the same day, the Bank will report on financial stability. I suppose that until some acute problems of Brexit reveal themselves or the country gets stuck in the coronavirus crisis, the regulator will not make any precipitous movements or further extend the monetary mechanism. The interest rate remains at 0.1% per annum; the next session is due on August, 6th. For the GBP, the vaguer the future, the better.
AUD looks good
On Tuesday, July 7th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will have a full-scale session. The interest rate here is 0.25% per annum. This is the minimum value, there is no room for decreasing it. Most likely, the regulator will mention the new cases of the coronavirus in the country and point out the respective risks. However, there will hardly be anything new for the market. The AUD looks good, and the neutral position of the RBA may support it.
Cryptocurrencies: summer calm
The crypto sector is enveloped in summer spleen – it has been like this for a few weeks already. In June, we hoped for some news about the Ethereum 2.0 version but we got none, so the expectations move forward. As for the BTC, there are more and more pieces of news concerning transactions and transfers but the cryptocurrency is lacking the main driver – no one has yet solved the scalability problem. The one who does it will skim all the cream, but yet – alas.