The new week of July will be full of statistics, news from global Central Banks and, perhaps, fresh OPEC+ information. Miss volatility? It seems to be at the door.
Brent: volatility from OPEC+
This Tuesday, July 14th, the monitoring committee of OPEC+ is having a telephone conference, and the next day, OPEC+ itself is having an online meeting devoted to the production of energy carriers. Investors may get interested in the talks around the possible correction of the parameters of daily oil production. Any arguments will definitely provoke increased volatility in oil quotations and will make Brent move more vividly.
EUR: stability is important
On Thursday, the European Central Bank is having a planned meeting. The interest rate is at zero, and the time for changing it has not come yet. The Old World has managed to keep the labor market in a relative balance – what a price the business had to pay is another question. Thanks to workplaces being presumed, the population looks easier on expenses than in other countries, and for Europe, this is a foothold. The more confidently Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, comments on the results of the session, the better for the euro.
JPY: the time of the safe-haven asset has not come yet
The Bank of Japan is having another meeting scheduled this week. The interest rate here remains at -0.10% per annum, and inside the financial system, a lot of asset buy-back programs are on. Judging by the recent statistics, the economy felt the decrease of domestic and foreign demand as a hard blow, and no balance has been reached here yet. The Japanese consumer is very cautious, and perhaps, monetary politicians will notice it at last. Normally, the JPY hardly reacts to the sessions of the BoJ. Instead, it is very sensitive to the demand as a safe-haven asset, and it might so happen that the demand will become more active.
GBP: the pound reacts to Brexit
Great Britain will issue a flow of statistics on the labor market, which is stabilizing slowly. Now that the country has almost fought back the coronavirus, it is time to return to Brexit issues – there are only six months of the transition period left. The pound is now more sensitive to Brexit news than the statistics, so the digits, especially if they coincide with expectations, may pass by unnoticed.
USD: intrigue in the corporate report season
What’s up in the US? Things are really interesting here. Firstly, the statistics are coming, as always, and this week, all eyes will be on the information on inflation, industrial production, and retail sales. Moreover, they will start publishing the statistics on the real estate market – we are curious if the demand will stabilize here. The stronger the reports, the better for the USD, as always. Secondly, the season of corporate reports is beginning, and this week, it will become fully on.
First and foremost, the market will be analyzing the financial reports of banks; risks are very high here. All in all, get prepared for the US report season being the worst in the decade or even more. Thirdly, the dollar enjoys demand as a safe-haven asset, while everyone is keeping an eye on Trump’s actions and new cases of the coronavirus: there were 60 thousand cases registered in 24 hours, this is the gravest result ever.