A new week of July is going to be quiet: statistics are scarce, the EU leaders keep discussing what money to use for restoring the economy, oil remains under pressure, new cases of the coronavirus keep multiplying. Nonetheless, the currency market is cheerful, eager to risk.
EUR: staying positive
From the Eurozone, important statistics will be really scarce. The most scrupulous market players might be interested in the structure of the balance of payment in the Eurozone. Also, note the consumer confidence index in the region — it might have improved significantly. All positive statistics should be interpreted as a local bounce: stable and systematic recuperation needs time. At the end of the week, the PMI in the service sphere of the Eurozone in July will be published. The digits are preliminary. Here, improvement is also possible because the consumer has almost returned to normal life. Germany, as one example, will issue the same report.
RUB: attention to the CB
On Friday, July 24th, the Bank of Russia is having a planned meeting. The key interest rate is at 4.50%; it fell steeply and massively just last week and does not need revising. However, the Bank of Russia has just mentioned a low inflation rate as the main reason to decrease the rate. This means the regulator is ready to drop it to 4% before September comes. The rate of the ruble already includes the probability of a decrease in the interest rate; however, if it happens earlier than planned (the market expects a decrease in September), volatility may leap up.
Brent: many questions to the demand
At the beginning of the first week of July, oil is decreasing because the market is focused on the new cases of the coronavirus in the US and world. The fact that the pandemics are not retreating makes market participants ponder over the stability of the demand for energy carriers. Positive factors are, indeed, scarce, which may drag Brent to 41-42 USD per barrel.
Cryptocurrencies: complete silence
The crypto sector is still lacking strategic ideas — this is the reaction of digital money to the controversial information about hacking Twitter accounts of famous politicians and business people. The story of stealing the BTC does not look trustworthy and draws attention to the social network more than anything else. The Bitcoin is stuck in a flat, the Ethereum is falling in price because the market is tired of waiting for the news about the launch of Ethereum 2.0; the major part of altcoins are lacking any idea at all.
USD: appetite for risk beats the dollar
All important statistics from the USA are concentrated in the housing market and the PMI of the non-production sector of the economy. In the USA, the season of corporate reports is on; the first week was even better than expected but anything may happen. The interest to the USD as a protective asset has fallen to the minimum – the market is positive about risks and does not want to avoid them.