Another week of August will offer a lot of statistics from Europe, the USA, and the United Kingdom, as well as plenty of doubts and enthusiasm about the outlook for oil demand. All this will be interesting, to say the least.
EUR: there might be reasons for the growth
Market players should pay attention to the data on inflation and the Core CPI in the Euro Area. The European Central Bank is going to publish the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which will surely not contain any useful information that investors didn’t know before but it’s still worth watching.
At the end of the week, the economic calendar will offer preliminary reports on the Services and Manufacturing PMIs in particular countries and the Euro Area in general. Neutral statistics are a good signal for the Euro.
Euro Area and the EU: a lot of things to discuss
On Monday, there will be a Eurogroup Meeting. There is only one key issue to discuss: how the region’s economy deals with the coronavirus pandemic consequences and what else can be done to improve the situation. The Meeting is expected to be a “warm-up” for European policymakers because Tuesday will bring us an ECOFIN Meeting with more participants and bigger problems to solve. In this light, it is very interesting to watch how the United Kingdom and France will behave.
Last Friday, London announced a two-week quarantine for everyone arriving in the country. This time, it is applied to the Frenchб who weren’t affected before. Paris deeply resented this decision and promised countermeasures for the British people. At the moment, it’s quite unclear whether this conflict complicates money relations in the already unsettling European Union but it is apparent that there are problems and the parties will have to deal with them together. The more risks, the worse for the Euro, and vice versa.
USD: attention to FOMC Meeting Minutes
There won’t be many important statistics from the USA. However, the PMIs reports in different sectors will be quite interesting as they may help investors understand whether the economy is getting back to life or remains in anabiosis. Also, the USA is scheduled to report on the Housing Starts and the Existing Home Sales.
In addition to that, the Federal Reserve System is going to publish the FOMC Meeting Minutes; however, since market players already know that everything was pretty quiet and easy, they are not expecting anything fundamentally new. However, financial markets need drivers for movement and may try to look for them in the document.
GBP: in the "black" so far
The United Kingdom still has a lot in the economic calendar. This week, the Brits offer a big flow of data on prices – from inflation to the RPI and PMIs. Particular attention should be paid to the Retail Sales report in the country where consumers remain quite inactive and restrained in spending money, which is very extremely important for the GDP. If the data turns out to be minor, the pressure on the Bank of England and the Pound will increase and decrease respectively.
Brent: hope for a rise in demand is still alive
Early in the week, Brent remains within a sideways channel but market players are very closely watching the situation about the charter of ships by Chinese oil companies for transporting a huge amount of oil products in August and September. If this information is confirmed, Brent will get significant support.