A week in the market: OPEC, Central banks, and Statistics
The beginning of October is going to be very eventful in terms of both news and statistics. For example, OPEC+ is scheduled to have another session and it always provides a lot of information. Investors won’t have time to get bored.
Brent: OPEC+ will set the tone
The week will start with the OPEC+ meeting, which offers a lot of intrigues. The most important of them is oil production parameters for November. The basic scenario implies that the cartel may adhere to its strategy of adding 400K barrels per day but there are more ambitious expectations. The Brent dynamics will directly depend on the comments from OPEC+.
USD: all eyes are on statistics
This week, as it usually happens at the beginning of the month, the USA will publish a lot of statistics. One should pay attention to the Factory Orders, which may improve pretty much, as well as the labour market numbers for September. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 5.1%, while the Non-Farm Employment Change may be twice as much as the month before. the stronger the reading, the better for the “greenback”.
Central banks: meetings continue
The first full week of October will bring us meetings of the Central banks of Romania, Poland, Iceland, Israel, Australia, India, and Peru. All of them are not expected to introduce any changes to their monetary policies. Neutrality in assessing what is happening in their economies will be a positive signal for risky assets.
NZD: the rate might rise
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also scheduled to have another session where it may decide on the rate. Average market expectations imply a 0.50% hike with the current value being 0.25%. The hike will mean that the New Zealand economy is doing fine but the NZD rate may boost its decline.
JPY: people don’t want to spend money
Apart from other things, Japan will publish two important releases. The first report is about the Tokyo Core CPI for September, which is usually considered as a leading indicator for the inflation rate in the country. The second one will offer the Household Spending data. It's no secret that the Japanese population is very reluctant in spending money, thus leaving the country’s economy without any support from this side. This time, the indicator is expected to plummet, which may result in further weakening in JPY.