A Week in the Market (01.11 - 07.11): the Fed and Other Central Banks
The first week of November will be important: all eyes will be on the conference of the Federal Reserve System. Investors wonder if the Fed will start winding up the stimulation program. Volatility promises to be extremely high.
AUD: CB conference and statistics
The Reserve Bank of Australia this week will have another conference this week, fixing various monetary issues. Most probably, the interest rate will not change from 0.10% per annum. The RBA is not likely to toughen credit and monetary conditions while it is not quite sure of the employment market stability. Neutral RBA position is good news for the AUD.
Brent: what will OPEC+ say?
This week, OPEC+ is having a conference. According to market forecasts, the cartel and member countries will keep returning 400 thousand barrels of oil to the market every day. This way, they will smooth out gradually the current supply shortage. Brent quotations are already expecting this. Calm OPEC+ comments, confirming the already known plan, will help market moods without a change.
USD: the clue is the Fed
This week, the US Federal Reserve System will also have a conference. With the interest rate, things are quite clear: it will not change until mid 2022, when the Fed will complete the whole load of stimuli. At this November conference, the Fed must announce the start of winding up the stimulation program. USD will be super volatile.
Central Banks: no stepping back
This week, conferences will be held by Central Banks of Poland and Czech. Poland is most likely to raise the interest rate to 0.75% per annum (+25 base points) and Czech — to 2.25% per annum (+75 base points). Positive CB comments will support risky assets in global capital markets.
GBP: the pound is aiming down
The Bank of England this week is also solving some monetary problems. The interest rate will stick to 0.10% annually, and the stimulation program will neither change. There are not going to be any reasons for changing the structure of credit and monetary policy until domestic issues are sorted out. The GBP rate might get depressed locally.