A Week in the Market: Central Banks and Inflation (11 – 15 April)
A week of Central banks meetings starts, and it can turn out quite energetic and active. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic calendar will offer a whole bunch of interesting statistics, which means investors will hardly have time for boredom.
Great Britain will be super active on the macroeconomic calendar. They will issue statistics on industrial production, trade balance, and GDP, alongside the employment market statistics. For now, the GBP looks weak under the pressure of the USD; however, sales might stop is statistics support the currency.
The USA are preparing a large block of statistics, including inflation statistics for March. The CPI renewed a long-time high and grew by 8.3% y/y. This will be yet another argument for a fast increase in the interest rates in May, and will presumably support the USD.
The Reserve bank of New Zealand is likely to increase the interest rate from 1% to 1.25%. This decision has already been included in the NZD quotes, but depending on the tone of the regulator’s comments, the quotes can behave differently. Stable monetary rate will be a positive signal for the currency.
The market expects that the Bank of Canada will decide to raise the interest rate from 0.5% to 1%. This is one of the methods to slow down the growth of the CPI. For the CAD, the increase in the interest rate can become a good support, especially if oil prices stabilize.
The European Central bank will also gather for a meeting. In the minutes of the previous meeting it is said that monetary politicians still have a choice but need to act now. This time no increase in the interest rate is expected, but the comments of the ECB might become even more hawk-like and support the EUR.