A Week in the Market: Labour Market Info and Risk Evaluation (4 – 8 July)
Over the first week of July, investors will be focused on employment market in key economies and CB decisions.
The Euro zone this week will present price statistics. First of all, a look should be taken on the PPI for May. Expectations are that the index has somewhat declined compared to April – and this would be a positive signal for the EUR.
The US will publish employment market statistics for June. It is forecast that the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 3.6%, while the average wage should grow by 5% y/y after previous growth by 5.2%.
The NFP might have grown by 270 thousand places after growth by 390 thousand places in May. The better turn out the data, the calmer the currency market will be.
On Tuesday, the Reserve bank of Australia will carry out a meeting and make some decisions on the interest rate. Very likely the index will grow from 0.85% to 1.35% a year.
The RBA has already given some signals about the upcoming toughening of the monetary policy. The AUD has accounted for this probability, but volatility will definitely grow when the decision will be announced.
Japan will present some statistics, but the JPY will mostly look at the behaviour of the USD and the market’s attitude to risks. Attention should be paid to the info about average wages in May and bank crediting volumes in June.
Canada is preparing a large block of statistics. Apart from the main indicators – reports on the employment market – attention should be paid to the PMI in production and the number of building permits. The CAD can somewhat drop because of the reports and the influence of the USD.