A Week in the Market: Interest Rates and Chinese Statistics (11 – 15 July)
This week, investors will keep an eye on inflation parameters in the US, a flow of reports from China, and decisions of regulators.
Central Banks: time to raise rates
Reserve banks of New Zealand and Canada are having meetings this week. In both cases, we expect further toughening of the credit and monetary policies. For the RBNZ, the rate will grow from 2% to 2.5% a year, and for the Bank of Canada – from 1.5% to 2%. These decisions are predictable but volatility might grow both in NZD and CAD.
Great Britain: flow of statistics
The country is going to demonstrate the GDP in May, industrial production and construction volumes. The Bank of England will present a report on the credit maket of the country. Most likely, the GBP will remain depressed.
USA: eyes on inflation
One of the main publications this week is the CPI in June. The forecast is growth by 1.1% m/m after an increase by 1% in May. This means, the inflation spiral is spinning in, giving the Fed a signal to raise the rate. The USD might get even more expensive.
Australia: AUD is weak
This week, Australia will be very active on the calendar. The country will publish the CCI in July and the employment/unemployment rates in June. Moreover, China will publish reports that might influence the AUD. For now, the AUD remains weak, and few things can change the situation.
China: guarantee of stability
China is preparing a whole load of statistics: trade balance in June, GDP in Q2, industrial production, investments in base assets, unemployment rate, and retail sales in May. The stabler turn out the reports, the better it will be for the economies of developing countries.