A Week in the Market: OPEC+ Meeting and US Labour Market (1 – 5 August)
As usual, the beginning of the month will bring in a flow of statistics from all over the world and form some understanding of what is going on in crude material production. This will be interesting.
This week, OPEC+ will carry out a meeting, where member countries will discuss expanding crude material production. Mind that this August, the OPEC+ agreement from 2020 will fully come to an end: all the volume of oil taken away from the market will eventually return. Also, Brent might remain stressed by the geopolitical situation.
At the beginning of August the British regulator will carry out a meeting and decide upon further steps in monetary policy. Most probably, the interest rate will grow by 50 base points. The GBP is ready to grow accordingly, but much depends on the USD movements.
At the beginning of August, the Euro zone and certain countries will issue a large block of statistics. Take a look at the unemployment rate in June: it will most probably remain at 6.6%. Also, check out the PMI in services of the whole Euro zone and large countries — and retail sales reports. For now, the EUR is neutral and will be able to grow if no bad news appears.
As usual, at the beginning of the month, the US will publish a flow of labour market reports. We are interested in the unemployment rate, which is likely to remain at 3.6% in Jule, and the NFP. The stronger the statistics, the better for the USD.
The scenario of the yen devaluation is temporary cancelled, which is good news. At the new week of summer, Japan will present an important report on households' spending, which is interpreted as a leading release for inflation. High results will be a signal for speeding up of inflation, which is good news for Japan. The JPY might go on growing slightly.