A Week in the Market: American Inflation and Lots of Doubts (8 – 12 August)
The currency market remains in tension: signs of a slow-down of economic growth are coming from everywhere, making investors avoid risks.
Important European statistics will be scarce this week. Take a look at the Sentix CCI in the Euro zone for August. The index might fall even deeper than in July because the economic situation has become worse. A weak report will deprive the EUR of a foothold.
Japan will present the PPI (which is expected to slow down) and orders for engineering equipment for July. We will also see bank crediting info and the Eco Watchers current economic situation index. Reaction to the statistics might be feeble, and the market is likely to remain focused on the advance of the USD. The JPY might start going down again.
Great Britain is preparing production and GDP statistics. In June, the economy might have shrunk by 1.2% m/m upon growing by 0.5% in May. This is the consequence of the growth of prices and the decline of business activity. For the GBP this is bad news.
Apart from normal statistics, take a look at the US CPI for July. Inflation is expected to have grown by just 0.2% m/m upon growing by 1.3% at once a month before. This is going to be a bright sign of the Fed's strategy working. The USD might drop.
Australia will show the business sentiment index for July, and it will be interesting news, because in June the index was 1. Moreover, the consumer confidence index that previously dropped by 3% is also worth checking. Both business and consumers are slowing down their activities because the RBA is lifting the interest rate. The AUD will logically experience pressure.