A Week in the Market: More and More Anxiety (29 August – 2 September)
This week, capital markets will remain nervous waiting for an energy crisis in Europe and growth of interest rate in the US.
This week, Japan will be extremely active on the macroeconomic calendar. It will publish retail sales and industrial production info and the CCI. These statistics are truly important for understanding the country's state of economy.
Locally, inflation is growing but what is left of it if we exclude energy carriers? The Bank of Japan does not have yet any strategy of lifting prices efficiently, which means the JPY is vulnerable.
The US are preparing a whole block of important statistics, including Conference Board CCI, the PMI in production and non-production, and employment market data for August. Most attention remains on the Fed's plan to keep on increasing the interest rate, and this supports the USD.
In the Euro zone, the main release will be the prelim inflation forecast for August. It is expected to reach 9% y/y when earlier it amounted to 8.9%. If the statistics turn out as expected, the EUR might start selling.
China will publish the PMI in production and services. These two sectors are expected to slow down, which might provoke sales in currencies and risky assets.
All attention in Great Britain is now focused on the growth of prices on electricity for consumers. Such a situation is likely to heat up inflation and cause a wave of strikes of civil servants who do not see their wages grow according to prices. Social tension in the country is growing, and this is bad for the GBP.