A Week in the Market: Strong political Influence (07 November – 11 November)
This week is not overloaded with reports - more of the focus will be on political news. It will be interesting to see how China shapes its strategy to combat COVID-19.
US congressional elections
All political events in the States tend to be highly publicised and emotionally charged. Congressional elections can influence risk attitudes and the behaviour of risky exchange-traded assets.
JPY: spending in the spotlight
Japan will publish one of the most interesting indicators - the household spending figure. Forecasts suggest that the indicator only increased by 2.7% y/y in September. Recall that in August it was up 5.1%. A decline in household spending activity would mean a slowdown in the underlying inflationary trend. This could trigger a new wave of JPY devaluation.
China: flow of statistical data
China will release a large stream of statistics, including information on consumer prices, the trade balance and the producer price index. The focus will be on a zero-tolerance regime as part of the fight against COVID-19. If Beijing, as is now expected, softens its approach to this idea, risk-linked assets could rise in price.
USD: no support
The US is preparing October inflation statistics for publication: The information may reflect an acceleration in price growth. In addition, reports on consumer credit, wholesale inventories and the small business optimism index will also be released. However, the data is unlikely to be supportive for USD - investors are more likely to trust the hints in the Fed's comments.
EUR: a pillar of stability
The Eurozone will report retail sales for September: the indicator may have recovered from a disappointing August. It will be interesting to look at the Sentix investor confidence index for November: the indicator may stabilise after a prolonged fall. Any neutral data is good for the EUR right now.