A Week in the Market: the fall of the Dollar and Chinese statistics (14 – 18 November)
The Fed's opinion on future interest rate decisions is pretty much the only thing of interest to the capital markets currently. The US dollar is continuingto fall, which is drawing a lot of attention.
China will provide plenty of statistics, including reports on retail sales and industrial production. A press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics of China is scheduled: the power and strength of the forecasts and commentary will determine global investors' attitudes to risk.
The Eurozone will publish GDP statistics for the third quarter as well as information on the trade balance and the business sentiment index for November. The ECB's financial stability report deserves attention: forecasts of key economic parameters are possible. If they are neutral, the EUR could rise further.
The UK will be very active in the macroeconomic calendar. Price action data is being prepared for release. According to average expectations, inflation in October could rise to 10.5% y/y, core inflation could accelerate to 6.6% y/y. Consumer price pressures will have a negative impact on GBP positions.
The US will release statistics on industrial production for October, inventories as well as the real estate market. The US dollar remains in a weak position due to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's moves in December. In the near future it is this factor that will determine the USD's behaviour.
From the plethora of statistical information from Canada, let's look at sales figures for the manufacturing sector, wholesale sales as well as prices. A strong CAD position is underpinned by stable commodity prices.