A Week in the Market: EU GDP and Activity in China (15-19 May)
2 minutes for reading
China: attention to risks
China is active again on the macroeconomic calendar with releases of industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and fixed-income data. Attention is turning to these reports as earlier results were weak and triggered a sell-off in risky assets.
USD: Demand for safe-haven assets
April retail sales data will be released in the US: the figure might rise 0.8% m/m after a 1.0% decline in March. In addition, there will be information on industrial production as well as on the real estate market components. The US dollar is in demand as a safe haven asset as investors assess global economic growth prospects.
Pound sterling: held back from falling
The UK will release employment market data, the consumer confidence index from GfK, and the manufacturing orders balance from CBI. The Bank of England will publish its quarterly economic report. It is important for the pound to maintain its rhetoric: this will keep it from falling.
Euro: hope for stabilisation
The Eurozone will publish final inflation and trade balance figures for April as well as preliminary GDP figures for Q1. In addition, ECB head Christine Lagarde will give a speech. EUR remains under pressure due to market demand for safe-haven assets but once sentiment changes, exchange rate might stabilize.
AUD: waiting for growth
Australia will release seasonally adjusted employment data. The minutes of the RBA's last meeting will be released, which might indicate the regulator's future interest rate actions. Any positive factors that could put the Australian dollar back on an upward trajectory are important now.