A Week in the Market: Abundance of Statistics (23-27 October)
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An avalanche of statistics is expected this week, but the market will mostly focus on the US GDP and the ECB’s meeting results. Investors will have to rapidly take into account a stream of reports.
USD: the US economy may grow faster
Apart from data on business activity and personal income and spending of Americans, the US is set to release a report on preliminary Q3 GDP. The economy is expected to expand by 4.1%. It is worth noting that last quarter’s growth was 2.1%. Robust statistics may support the USD positions.
AUD: focus on inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia will present an annual report, which will provide insights into the overall economic environment and the regulator’s future fiscal actions. Inflation data for Q3 will also be published. If they exceed expectations, this could provide support for the AUD exchange rate.
EUR: the interest rate may remain unchanged
There will be a stream of statistics from the eurozone and some of its member countries, but investors will most probably focus on the meeting of the European Central Bank and its decision on the interest rate. The indicator is likely to remain at 4.50% per annum. Comments from the regulator will have great importance to the EUR.
CAD: the interest rate is not expected to change
The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting to decide on the borrowing cost. The interest rate currently stands at 5.00% per annum and is unlikely to change. The regulator will most probably say that it needs time to collect data. The CAD exchange rate will move depending on the central bank’s comments and oil prices.
JPY: devaluation persists
Devaluation remains the main scenario for the JPY. Nevertheless, the statistics are important for understanding whether there are real grounds for a shift in monetary policy. Japan is gearing up to release information on core inflation in Tokyo. A high ratio may help stabilise the JPY exchange rate.