January was a pretty “stormy” month for financial markets. Something was happening almost everywhere, for example, fires in Australia, a quick spread of a new coronavirus in China, the Brexit in the United Kingdom, a change of government in Russia. In theory, the first week of February should be pretty quiet for investors and traded assets, but no one knows what may happen.
The last week of January will be at least interesting: Brexit is coming, though it was hard to believe we will ever see it. The Fed will make its decision about the rate, as well as the Bank of England.
The new week is unlikely to become something remarkable for capital markets, as long as no new drivers or catalysts are going to appear, but investors are not going to be bored either.
The last full-scale workweek of December is going to be quite empty of events and statistics: the catholic world will be away for Christmas, so the activity on the exchanges will shrink. In Russia, we speak more about the results of the year than tie up the loose ends. In other words, the year has been quite tough, it is time to have a rest.
The second half of December is the time of cleaning up the current affairs and forecasting the coming year. This week, central banks' sessions are coming to an end, but statistics will remain abundant. The markets will have no time to be bored.
The beginning of December on the markets will be saturated with general economic and political events, but investors are still more hopeful about the news from the US and China than for other catalysts.
The Bank of Canada is not yet ready to change the rate, but the USD plans to strengthen.