At the beginning of June, I wrote about oil prices growing before the OPEC+ meeting (link). At that time, Brent and WTI demonstrated growth to $70.63 and $67.93, respectively. What's the new growth provoked by? How much does a barrel of black gold cost now? What're the forecasts for the nearest future? Let's try to answer these questions right here and now.
Brent trading above $73
On June 11th, the price for a Brent (BQ1) August future grew by 0.23%, reaching $72.69 per barrel. The next trading session also closed with an increase by 0.11% to $72.77.
Today, when I was preparing this article, Brent managed to rise over $73 per barrel. To be precise, it reashed $73.36, which means 0.81% growth. As you know, last time oil traded above $73 on May 20th, 2019.
The uptrend has been continuing for four sessions in a row. Over this time, the August futures has grown by 1.6%.
WTI rising above $71
On Friday, June 11th, futures for Texas oil WTI (TN1) grew by 0.88% to $70.91. The day's high was $71.24. Next trades closed at $70.97, which meand growth was only by 0.08%.
When I was preparing the article, the futures price reached $71.54 per barrel, growing by 0.8%. Note that WTI prices have been growing for four trading days in a row: since June 10th, the commodity price has increased by 2.2%.
Why are oil prices growing?
Many analysts note that the growth of oil futures is provoked by the publication of the Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). As you know, this is one of the most authoritative sources of information about the energy market.
More on the Oil Market Report
The main idea of the document is the statemebt that the pre-crisis level of demand for black gold (100.6 million barrel a day) will have restored by the end of the next calendar year. As for the demand this year, the IEA claims theat it will grow by 5.4 million barrels a day.
It's stated that the demand for avia fuel will increase by 1.5 million barrels a day, for gasoline — by 0.66 million, and for diesel fuel — by 0.52 million. The processing power of oil-producing plants this year will grow by 7.4 million barrels a day.
Experts from the agency see no complications in the return of Iran oil to the market if the sanctions are lifted. Though it's important to mention that the supply will almost immediately reach 1.4 million barrels a day. Moreover, in the IEA they think that OPEC+ countries should increase production to satisfy the growing demand.
Analysts state that the growth of demand is explained by the restoration of road traffic in Europe and the USA, as well as an increase in the number of flights. The success of the massive anti-covid vaccination have a positive effect on the activity and mobility of population.
Forecast for the second semester of 2021
According to Reuters, the minister of oil of Iran Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar voiced his view of the oil market situation for the nearest six months. He thinks that if OPEC countries stick with their agreements on limiting oil production, futures prices will fluctuate between $68 and $75 per barrel.
In the quartel itself, they think that in the second half of the year, demand will reach such a volume that it will lack just 0.15 million barrels a day to reach the pre-pandemic level.
The oil market overview prepared by the IEA made Brent and WTI futures grow. In the IEA, they think that the pre-pandemic level of demand for oil will have restored by the end of 2022, and OPEC countries should be ready to open the taps.
What else to read about oil prices on R Blog?
- A Week in the Market (19.07 - 25.07): the Summer Calm is Already Here
- A Week in the Market (12.07 - 18.07): OPEC and a Flow of Statistics
- A Week in the Market (28.06 - 04.07): End of June Will Be Hot
- A Week in the Market (07.06 - 13.06): Central Banks and a Drop of Oil