NVIDIA: The 2.5B USD Deal With TikTok's Owner Could Be a New Catalyst for Stock Growth
16 minutes for reading
TikTok's parent company ByteDance is set to gain access to NVIDIA's flagship AI chips worth over 2.5 billion USD through data centers in Malaysia. The deal signals that the Chinese market is not lost for NVIDIA — China will continue accessing cutting-edge technology through third-party routes.
In Brief
- Chinese demand for NVIDIA chips persists despite US sanctions.
- NVIDIA stands to gain a new multi-billion USD revenue stream.
- 47 out of 49 Wall Street analysts rate NVDA stock as a Buy.
- NVIDIA shares are oversold, presenting an optimal entry point.
Trade Idea Parameters
Below are the specific parameters for the NVIDIA trade idea. The ticker for trading via MobileTrader and MT5 on RoboForex is NVDA.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) |
| Ticker in MobileTrader / MT5 | NVDA |
| Idea Date | March 30, 2026 |
| Time Horizon | 1–6 months |
| Direction | ↑ Buy (Long) |
| Entry Level (trigger) | 178 USD |
| Take Profit | 240 USD |
| Stop Loss | 165 USD |
| Position Size | No more than 3% of account · Medium risk |
Why It Matters: Context
Deal Details
According to The Wall Street Journal, ByteDance has gained access to 500 Blackwell systems comprising 36,000 flagship B200 chips, through data centers operated by Singapore-based Aolani Cloud in Malaysia. Aolani Cloud is a certified NVIDIA partner with priority access to its latest chips. Formally, this is not a chip sale but an exclusive lease of computing capacity — a structure that does not directly fall under US export restrictions on shipments to China.
Each Blackwell system is a server rack containing 72 GPUs, measuring approximately 60 × 120 × 200 cm.
NVDA Analyst Ratings
As of March 2026, Barchart analyst ratings for NVIDIA present a rare case of near-unanimous consensus for a major public company: only 1 out of 49 tracked analysts rates NVDA as a Sell.
| Target Price | Value | Upside from Current Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Average Target Price | 266.59 USD | +49.7% |
| Maximum Target Price | 360.00 USD | +102.2% |
| Minimum Target Price | 140 USD | -21.3% |
NVIDIA Technical Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, NVDA is consolidating between its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This type of pause within a sustained uptrend is typically an accumulation zone rather than a reversal signal. The 200-day moving average remains well below the current price — the long-term trend is intact and buyers remain in control.
The Stochastic indicator is approaching the oversold zone. This suggests that corrective pressure is fading and the current consolidation may be nearing its end.
Based on the technical picture, the following key observations can be made:
- The 200-day moving average (MA200) remains well below the current price, confirming the strength of the long-term uptrend.
- Consolidation between MA20 and MA50 within a strong trend is an accumulation zone, not a reversal signal. Such pauses typically resolve with a continuation of the move.
- Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone, signaling that corrective pressure is exhausting and a phase shift is near.
- Key entry trigger: a breakout above MA20 (~178 USD) on above-average volume. Without this confirmation, entering a position would be premature.
The nearest target for NVIDIA shares is a retest of the all-time high at 211 USD.
Sample Trading Strategy for NVIDIA Stock
The following is a sample trading strategy for NVDA shares. This example is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should independently assess their own risks.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry Point | Breakout above the 20-day Moving Average at 178 USD per share |
| Take Profit | 240 USD |
| Stop Loss | 165 USD (return to MA20 level) |
| Risk / Reward Ratio | 1 : 4.7 |
| Position Size | No more than 3% of account |
Sample Calculation for 10 NVDA Shares
| Scenario | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buy 10 shares at 178 USD | 10 × 178 USD | 1,780 USD |
| If target reached (240 USD) | (240 − 178) × 10 | +620 USD(+34.8%) |
| If stop triggered (165 USD) | (178 − 165) × 10 | −130 USD(−7.3%) |
| Risk / Reward | 130 / 620 | 1 : 4.7 |
A risk-to-reward ratio of 1:4.7 is within the typical range for positional trading. Keep in mind that markets are volatile: NVDA shares can move both in favor of and against an open position.
Risks
Like any trade idea, this scenario carries key risks that should be considered before making a decision.
- Regulatory risk — the primary one. If US authorities determine that Chinese companies are accessing NVIDIA's advanced chips through third countries, they may tighten export rules or impose new sanctions on intermediaries. This would impact the ByteDance deal and dampen broader market expectations.
- Macroeconomic risk. A US recession or a sharp slowdown in corporate IT spending would reduce demand for data centers — and therefore for NVIDIA's chips. Monitor quarterly capex guidance from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.
- Revenue concentration. A small number of major cloud customers account for a significant share of NVIDIA's sales. Any changes to their AI investment plans could directly affect the company's results.
- Market volatility. Tech stocks are historically highly volatile, especially around macro data releases and earnings reports. Managing the position with a stop-loss order is essential.
Conclusion
NVIDIA once again proves that it remains the primary beneficiary of the global AI boom. The ByteDance news is not merely a one-off 2.5B USD deal — it is a signal that the Chinese market remains strategically important for the company.
For NVDA shares, this means one of the key overhangs of the past 18 months is beginning to clear. Once the market recognizes that the China loss is not structural or permanent, analysts will be forced to revise revenue estimates higher — a direct catalyst for share price appreciation.
Technically, the stock is consolidating at a favorable entry point — between MA20 and MA50, with Stochastic in the oversold zone. Fundamentally, a new catalyst has emerged that is not yet fully priced into estimates.
* The information contained in this article reflects the personal opinion of the authors. This article should not be considered as trading advice or a call to action. The article authors and RoboForex bear no responsibility for the results of any trades made based on the recommendations and reviews contained herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading stocks and CFDs involves a high risk of capital loss.
