Oracle Stock Down 60% From Its Peak. Can the Bloom Energy Deal Trigger a Reversal in ORCL?

Below are the specific parameters for the Oracle trade idea. The ticker for trading via RoboForex MobileTrader and MT5 on RoboForex is ORCL.

Against a backdrop of surging demand for cloud and AI computing capacity, Oracle and Bloom Energy have expanded their partnership under a new agreement by which Oracle will purchase up to 2.8 GW of Bloom's power systems. Of that total, the first 1.2 GW are already under contract — installation has begun and will continue into next year — with all units destined for Oracle's US-based projects.

For Oracle, this is a strategically important move. The company has stated publicly that demand for its AI capacity already exceeds current supply, while its contracted backlog has reached 553 billion USD. The faster Oracle can power its data centres and bring new capacity online, the faster it can convert that demand into real revenue.

A Bloom Energy Server is a set of modular power units placed directly on-site next to a facility, generating electricity right where it is needed. Inside each unit, solid oxide fuel cells convert natural gas, biogas, or hydrogen into electricity through an electrochemical process. According to Bloom Energy's own data, the system runs continuously, requires no water during normal operation, and has already been deployed across more than 1,500 MW at over 1,200 sites worldwide.

One of the key advantages of the Bloom Energy Server is how quickly it can be deployed compared with conventional grid connections. Bloom says that in a previous Oracle delivery, the company had a fully operational system up and running in just 55 days — more than a month ahead of the originally expected 90-day timeline.

A second advantage is the system's ability to respond almost instantly to sudden spikes in power demand. In its own testing, Bloom demonstrated that its units can ramp load from 40% to 100% nearly instantaneously. Data centre experts have noted that AI facility power consumption can jump from 50% to 100% within seconds — and if the power source cannot keep up with that surge, it risks disrupting the entire site.

For Oracle, this deal is strategically valuable on several levels:

In short, the Bloom Energy deal gives Oracle a tool for accelerating data centre construction. It helps the company bring new capacity to market sooner, reduces the risk of delays, and strengthens Oracle Cloud Infrastructure's competitive position in the race for AI.

The 2.8 GW contracted under Oracle's deal with Bloom represents capacity locked in through 2030 — a scale that puts Oracle firmly in the same league as the largest AI infrastructure projects in the market. For comparison, Google and NextEra already have around 3.5 GW of generation operating or contracted; Microsoft's data centre expansion in Wisconsin implies expected power demand of 2.6 GW by 2030; Amazon AWS is adding 2.4 GW through a new project in Indiana; and Meta's Hyperion project is being backed by three new gas-fired plants totalling 2.2 GW.

Against this backdrop, Oracle has joined the top tier of companies actively securing energy capacity ahead of future AI demand growth. This matters because in the years ahead, the pace at which AI businesses can scale will depend heavily on who has secured sufficient power supply in advance.

As of April 2026, Barchart analyst ratings for Oracle stock reflect a strong consensus in favour of buying: 33 out of 42 tracked analysts rate ORCL as a Buy, 8 as Hold, and only 1 as Sell.

Oracle's capital expenditure jumped from 6.12 billion USD in fiscal year 2024 to 21.2 billion USD in fiscal year 2025, with the company planning to spend around 50 billion USD in fiscal year 2026. That means capex will have grown more than sevenfold over two years. At the same time, fiscal year 2026 revenue is forecast at 67 billion USD — a 26% increase over fiscal year 2024. The widening gap between spending growth and revenue growth unsettled markets, particularly against the backdrop of Oracle's plans to raise up to 50 billion USD in debt. The result was a sustained sell-off that took ORCL shares down roughly 60% from the September 2025 peak.

Despite that sharp decline, ORCL shares on the weekly timeframe continue to trade above the 200-day Moving Average, confirming that the long-term uptrend remains structurally intact. Since February 2026, the stock has been consolidating between roughly 140 and 158 USD, which signals that the downward momentum is fading and a base is forming. The Stochastic indicator is in oversold territory — a signal that suggests a potential recovery in ORCL may be ahead.

The base-case scenario points to a breakout above the 20-day Moving Average near 168 USD as the entry trigger for a buy. The first upside target is the resistance at 220 USD; a confirmed break above that level opens the path toward the primary target at 280 USD. A break below the 140 USD support would invalidate the bullish setup.

Below is a sample trading strategy for ORCL shares. This example is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance independently.

A risk/reward ratio of around 1:4 sits comfortably in the acceptable range for position trading. Keep in mind that markets are volatile: ORCL shares can move both for and against an open position.

Like any trade idea, this scenario carries key risks that must be considered before making a decision.

The Oracle and Bloom Energy agreement directly addresses one of the AI industry’s most critical bottlenecks: securing sufficient power for new data centres. By locking in up to 2.8 GW of capacity, Oracle gains a speed advantage in bringing facilities online and reinforces its competitive standing against AWS, Microsoft, and Google Cloud.

For ORCL stock, this means the company is better positioned to convert its 553 billion USD contracted backlog into real revenue. Investor attention will remain focused on the pace of spending, since capital expenditure is growing far faster than revenue. If Oracle demonstrates that new capacity is genuinely translating into earnings, that could become a powerful catalyst for further recovery in the share price.

From a technical perspective, ORCL shares are holding above the 200-day Moving Average — a sign that the long-term uptrend is active. The Stochastic indicator in oversold territory suggests the correction may be coming to an end. A breakout above the 20-day Moving Average near 168 USD could serve as the signal for a renewed move higher, with initial targets at 220 USD and the primary target at 280 USD.